TABLE 3: REGRESSIONS OF CHANGES IN DEFENSE SPENDING ON SUPPORT FOR OTHER NATIONS, WARS, ELECTION CYCLES, UNEMPLOYMENT, REAGAN BUILDUP, AND SOVIET MILITARY SPENDING BY ERAS OF ATTENTION, FY 1966-1979 AND FY 1980-1992.

	FY 1966-1979		FY 1980-1992		OVERALL FY 1966-1992
MODEL Variables	OLS^a First Differences in Real Defense BA	AUTO^a First Differences in Real Defense BA	OLS^a First Differences in Real Defense BA	AUTO^a First Differences in Real Defense BA	OLS^a First Differences in Real Defense BA	AUTO^a First Differences in Real Defense BA
Prior Spending^b	.34 (1.33)	.42 (1.73)	.71*** (11.25)	.87*** (6.38)	.58*** (4.02)	.59*** (3.82)
Internatl Support	-0.36 (-0.58)	-0.47 (-1.01)	1.94*** (5.32)	1.41** (2.54)	0.14 (0.30)	-0.09 (-0.24)
Vietnam War	31700** (2.45)	24490* (2.03)	---	---	32801*** (3.12)	19602* (1.85)
Gulf War	---	---	35139*** (10.00)	28914*** (5.72)	23852 (1.44)	32666*** (3.99)
Reagan Buildup	---	---	27768*** (7.94)	16228** (2.66)	33124*** (3.13)	23016** (2.43)
Soviet Spending t-1	-0.02 (-0.05)	-0.08 (-0.23)	0.34*** (5.92)	0.03 (0.20)	0.06 (0.31)	0.07 (0.38)
R Square	.47	.49	.98	.88	.67	.63
Adj R Sqr	.31	.40	.97	.83	.59	.56
DW Stat	1.28^c	1.26^c	2.41^c	1.22^c	1.67^c	1.42^c
DH Stat	2.68^d	1.91^d	-0.80	1.39	0.48	1.38
Residual Rho ^e	0.24	0.21	-0.22	0.33	0.06	0.16
Runs Normal Statistic	-0.56	-0.56	-0.85	-0.85	-0.83	-1.76

T-ratios in parentheses.

* - Statistically significant at 0.10 level; ** - significant at 0.05 level; and *** - significant at 0.01 level.

a - All variables have been differenced once.

b - In OLS models prior spending is differences in real defense budget authority lagged one year and used as an independent variable; in AUTO models, this is rho, an estimate of the first-order autoregressive process in the error term using Cochrane-Orcutt procedures in SHAZAM.

c - Evidence from the Durbin-Watson statistic of residual autocorrelation.

d - Evidence from the Durbin h statistic of remaining higher order autocorrelation.