TABLE 2: REGRESSIONS OF U.S. DEFENSE SPENDING ON SUPPORT FOR OTHER NATIONS, WARS, ELECTION
CYCLES, UNEMPLOYMENT, REAGAN BUILDUP,
AND THE COLD WAR, FY 1946-1998.
|
MODEL Variables |
OLS Real Defense Budget Authority |
AUTO Real Defense Budget Authority |
OLSa First Differences in Real Defense BA |
AUTOa First Differences in Real Defense BA |
AUTOa First Differences in Real Defense BA |
|
Prior Spendingb |
.68*** (8.33) |
.96*** (24.03) |
0.19*** (3.23) |
0.30** (2.21) |
0.22 (1.60) |
|
Internatl Support |
0.98 (1.23) |
0.20 (0.43) |
0.54 (1.27) |
0.35 (0.80) |
--- |
|
Korean War |
82547*** (2.56) |
128430*** (6.53) |
117440*** (6.62) |
109300*** (6.14) |
116100*** (6.53) |
|
Kennedy Buildup |
384 (0.02) |
24909 (1.45) |
22953 (1.52) |
30264* (1.88) |
21952 (1.42) |
|
Vietnam War |
47693** (2.49) |
33019* (1.96) |
32953** (2.21) |
25688 (1.62) |
25462* (1.65) |
|
Gulf War |
77596* (1.84) |
28909* (1.71) |
32467** (2.17) |
21665 (1.55) |
27442** (1.95) |
|
Presidential Election |
-11841 (-0.78) |
-5953 (-1.00) |
-3864 (-0.73) |
-5259 (-1.05) |
--- |
|
Unemploy- ment Pct t-1 |
20272*** (3.98) |
-883 (-0.28) |
1365 (0.47) |
-1847 (-0.63) |
--- |
|
Reagan Buildup |
9710 (0.41) |
26700 (1.55) |
26091* (1.72) |
20454 (1.29) |
25836* (1.68) |
|
Cold War |
18903 (1.28) |
47119** (2.48) |
48487*** (2.87) |
44134** (2.49) |
44501** (2.49) |
|
Constant |
-76718* (-1.95) |
206630*** (3.48) |
--- |
--- |
--- |
|
R Square |
.82 |
.94 |
.78 |
.74 |
.72 |
|
Adj R Sqr |
.77 |
.92 |
.73 |
.68 |
.69 |
|
DW Stat |
1.03c |
1.27c |
1.91 |
1.88 |
1.94 |
|
DH Stat |
2.49d |
1.46 |
0.32 |
0.82 |
0.05 |
|
Residual Rho e |
0.28 |
0.19 |
0.04 |
0.03 |
0.00 |
|
Runs Normal Statistic |
-3.08 f |
-1.12 |
-0.68 |
-0.87 |
-0.29 |
T-ratios are in parentheses; SHAZAM OLS and AUTO estimates.
* - Statistically significant at the 0.10 level; ** - significant at the 0.05 level; and *** - significant at the 0.01 level, two-tailed tests.
a - All variables have been differenced once.
b - In OLS models prior spending is real defense budget authority or differences in real defense budget authority lagged one year and used as an independent variable; in AUTO models, this is rho, an estimate of the first-order autoregressive process in the error term using Cochrane-Orcutt procedures in SHAZAM.
c - Evidence from the Durbin-Watson statistic of residual autocorrelation.
d - Evidence from the Durbin h statistic of remaining higher order autocorrelation.
e - An estimate of the first order autocorrelation remaining in regression residuals.
f - Evidence from a normalized runs test of non-random residuals.